AI / Discovery
Beyond the Chatbot
Where AI has produced real results so far: scientific discovery, spreading expertise and systems that compound, with a wealth management case study.
Macro Research
Research notes on rates, growth, geopolitics and the economics of AI.
Most recent first. Notes are shown as published and are not updated.
Latest · AI / Discovery
The Real AI Revolution Isn't in Chatbots
Where AI has produced real results so far: scientific discovery, spreading expertise and systems that compound, with a wealth management case study.
SkyWise Research · 12 notes
SkyWise Research is the series name for my long-form notes. Most come as a brief and a full note. Each links to its LinkedIn discussion.
China
China’s Sluggish Growth, Deflation and Implications on the World
China’s slowing growth, persistent deflation, property downturn and industrial overcapacity, and how each one reaches the rest of the world.
Currencies / Rates
Japan–Russia Currency Crisis and U.S. Bond Yields
Japan’s yield curve, Russia’s sanctions-driven isolation and the U.S. fiscal position, with 13 charts built from FRED series.
Industrial
The Heartland’s Freight Renaissance
Reindustrialization in the U.S. interior and what it has done to flatbed freight.
AI & Labor
The Skills Mismatch Economy
Wharton, Accenture, McKinsey, Brookings and Pew on how AI is reorganizing the labor market.
AI & Operations
Bridging the Gap: AI-Led Financial Operations
The step between manual workflows and agentic AI in middle-office operations.
Geopolitics
Middle East Geopolitical Realignment
The economic effects of U.S. and Israeli actions in the Middle East, quantified.
Geopolitics
The Global Geopolitical Landscape and New World Order
A macro model’s read on a shift toward strategic realignment, over a three-to-five-year horizon.
AI & Organizations
The AI Revolution and Organizational Transformation
The digital revolution as a comparison for AI, the rise of the Chief AI Officer, and what it means for the C-suite.
AI & Growth
AI in 2026: Business Adoption and Economic Impact
How far business adoption of AI has gone, with tech investment at a record 6.02% of GDP, and what that means for growth.
Monetary Policy
Fed Independence in 2026
Fed independence ahead of the May 2026 leadership change: base case, risk case, and what each means for rates.
Methodology
Evidence-Based Country Grouping
A K-means grouping of the 50 largest economies, as an alternative to static developed and emerging labels.
Macro & Rates
Currencies / Rates
Japan–Russia Currency Crisis and U.S. Bond Yields
Japan’s yield curve, Russia’s sanctions-driven isolation and the U.S. fiscal position, with 13 charts built from FRED series.
Monetary Policy
Fed Independence in 2026
Fed independence ahead of the May 2026 leadership change: base case, risk case, and what each means for rates.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics
Middle East Geopolitical Realignment
The economic effects of U.S. and Israeli actions in the Middle East, quantified.
Geopolitics
The Global Geopolitical Landscape and New World Order
A macro model’s read on a shift toward strategic realignment, over a three-to-five-year horizon.
China
China
China’s Sluggish Growth, Deflation and Implications on the World
China’s slowing growth, persistent deflation, property downturn and industrial overcapacity, and how each one reaches the rest of the world.
Industrial
Industrial
The Heartland’s Freight Renaissance
Reindustrialization in the U.S. interior and what it has done to flatbed freight.
AI & the Economy
AI / Discovery
Beyond the Chatbot
Where AI has produced real results so far: scientific discovery, spreading expertise and systems that compound, with a wealth management case study.
AI & Labor
The Skills Mismatch Economy
Wharton, Accenture, McKinsey, Brookings and Pew on how AI is reorganizing the labor market.
AI & Operations
Bridging the Gap: AI-Led Financial Operations
The step between manual workflows and agentic AI in middle-office operations.
AI & Organizations
The AI Revolution and Organizational Transformation
The digital revolution as a comparison for AI, the rise of the Chief AI Officer, and what it means for the C-suite.
AI & Growth
AI in 2026: Business Adoption and Economic Impact
How far business adoption of AI has gone, with tech investment at a record 6.02% of GDP, and what that means for growth.
Methodology
Methodology
Evidence-Based Country Grouping
A K-means grouping of the 50 largest economies, as an alternative to static developed and emerging labels.
Market notes · 42 shorter posts, Feb–Nov 2025
Shorter, data-driven notes on growth, inflation, jobs, earnings and tariffs. Grouped by theme, each linking to the post on LinkedIn.
Growth & GDP
- Q2 2025 GDP: look past the headline
- Q1 2025 GDP contracts 0.3%
- Atlanta Fed adjusts GDPNow for gold imports
- GDP forecast versus Atlanta Fed nowcast divergence
- Q4 2024 GDP and Q1 2025 outlook
- Q2 GDP nowcasts point to a stronger economy
- GDP per capita: U.S. pulling ahead, Japan falling behind
- UK and Germany economic caution
Inflation
Labor & consumer
- August 2025 jobs report: a slowing labor market
- Private-sector jobs data during the BLS data gap
- Student loan repayments restart and consumer spending
- Millennials versus Boomers: the wealth gap at 40
- U.S. consumer health at an inflection point
- Retail sales and the "vibecession"
- Labor force participation and education gaps
Earnings & markets
- Q3 2025 earnings season highlights (FactSet)
- Q2 2025 earnings: Big Tech dominance
- Q2 2025 earnings season update (FactSet)
- Q2 earnings revisions and stretched valuations
- Q1 2025 earnings and guidance withdrawals
- Q1 2025 S&P 500 earnings estimates falling
- 2025 S&P 500 earnings growth forecast of 14%
- 2025 market scorecard: S&P 500 turns negative
- Can SPY catch up to international markets?
- Germany, China and Mexico outperform the U.S. in stocks
Trade, tariffs & the dollar
- Tariff revenue versus corporate tax revenue
- S&P Global manufacturing PMI and tariff-driven sourcing shifts
- Foreign ownership of U.S. financial assets
- The U.S. dollar's role in global trade
- UBS tariff-exposure basket down one-third
- Tariffs, oil prices and India as a relative winner
- How framing shapes support for tariffs (NYT poll)
- Declining international tourism to the U.S.
- Middle East escalation and oil prices in historical context
- S&P Global flash PMI: manufacturing slips, services rebound
- ISM Manufacturing at 50.3: prices up, orders down
Notes from the room
My takeaways from talks I attended, mostly at the Boston Economic Club.