Adi Agrawal, PhD, CFA

I think about markets in three layers. The first is the enduring truths of the field, the second is the long-term shifts that could change them, and the third is the events in front of us right now. It takes all three to say anything about future returns, and underneath all three sits one belief. Markets are made of people.

That’s why I look past the headline, do my own research, and read widely, from economists and strategists to people building the technology itself. What I find shows up in my notes. There are short ones on GDP, inflation, jobs and earnings, and longer research notes on macro, geopolitics and the economics of AI. I’m skeptical of hype, including AI hype. My argument on AI is that it pays off only when firms spend time on strategy and redesign the work, not when they speed up old workflows. From October 2025 I was VP, Wealth and Asset Management Industry Lead at Writer, speaking and writing about exactly that.

Before that, 13 years at Wellington Management, the last eight as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager. I came to finance from engineering, with a PhD in electrical engineering, six years leading a team at MathWorks, and five US patents. I still work like an engineer. I form a hypothesis, test it, and size the risk.

This site holds my research, my views on investing and AI, and the projects I’ve built.

Resume (PDF)Macro ResearchInvestment philosophyLinkedIn